Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. File usage on Commons. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. You can also view these ratings as a table. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Alaska. 50. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . November 7: Toss-up races projected. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. All Rights Reserved. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Send us an email. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. Michael F.Q. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Search our Site: . Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Current House. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Analysis>. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Less clear is what the race will do to his . For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Visit. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. Click here! Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Click on the to see the other two. Its a busy time for collecting polls. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. 51 +1. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. All rights reserved. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. Looking for the national forecast? The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell No Electoral College majority, House decides election. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 100% remote. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. Read the analysis ($). Arizona. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans are favored to win the House. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. See the rest of our predictions. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Our forecast has three versions. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. You can also view these ratings as a table. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. Notice any bugs or missing polls? RCP Gov Map Race . Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. File history. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. MONTREAL, Que. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r